COVID-19’s uneven spread across LA County

Many parts of of Los Angeles saw huge spikes in June, but some showed declines
Health

Illustration of COVID-19 infections

 

June was a bad month for COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County, but for the neighborhood of West Los Angeles, it was especially rough. The area, located just south of Westwood, had more than four times the amount of new infections in June, at 116, than it did in May.

 

In fact, of the 247 areas in Los Angeles County that Crosstown tracks, 199 registered more infections in June than in May. Six were steady and 42 saw a decline.

 

Across all of Los Angeles County in June, the number of new infections rose from 30,781 in May to 45,539 in June, a 48% increase. Since the beginning of July, the pace of new infections in the county has only accelerated, with July 7 hitting a new daily record with 4,015 cases, in part because of a backlog of tests that the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health just received.

 

Coronavirus mortality rates in the county appear to be declining, however. In late June, roughly 4% of overall cases resulted in death. In early July, that rate fell to around 3%. Health officials say that may be driven in part by the fact that many of the newly infected are younger and healthier. This month, the county’s Department of Public Health began warning that about 50% of those that test positive for the virus are between 18 and 40 years old.

 

Some areas spike, others decline

Across the state, many of the areas that have been hardest hit are both densely populated and home to low-income workers. In addition, many low-wage workers are deemed “essential,” and must staff supermarket cash registers, nursing facilities or other places where they run the risk of contagion. Indeed, within Los Angeles County, some densely inhabited areas, such as East Compton and La Puente, reported 228% to 230% increases in new cases in June.

 

LA County areas with large increases of new cases between May and June

Chart showing highest rates of new infections in Los Angeles County

Chart measures the percent change of new cases from May to June for Los Angeles County areas that registered at least 100 new confirmed COVID-19 infections.

 

However, there are also numerous areas with dense populations that did not see a spike. The neighborhood of East Hollywood, for example, added 158 new cases in June, a decrease of 26% from May. 

 

There were also wealthy areas that saw sharp increases. Beverly Hills maintained a modest increase in May, with 31 cases. But in June, the city recorded 104 new infections, a jump of 235%. 

 

Another place that recorded a high jump from May to June was Diamond Bar, which had a 203% increase in cases. In contrast, Culver City had a 44% decrease.

 

Who gets tested

There are many factors that can influence why some areas show high numbers of new cases.

Even the location and accessibility of testing sites can make a difference, said Janet Wojcicki, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco, School of Medicine. For example, the city of Pomona had a 179% increase in new infections in June, with 1,010. The county maintains a large, drive-up testing site at the Fairplex in Pomona, making it easy for nearby residents to get a COVID-19 test. 

 

Wojcicki, who has been studying how certain populations in California are impacted differently by COVID-19, noted that there are lots of holes in the data. On July 7, the Department of Public Health reported that the daily rate for positive coronavirus testing rose to 11.6%. On June 27, the daily rate –– which is calculated by a seven-day average –– was 8.6%. 

 

However, the department only reports on the positive testing rate for the county as a whole, not for individual communities. Wojcicki said that localized data on the percentage of positive tests within specific communities would provide a more detailed understanding of which areas have higher infection rates. 

 

Until June 18, Los Angeles County had a strict shutdown order. Then, the county allowed some retail stores, gyms, restaurants and bars to reopen, albeit with sanitary guidelines. But after a surge in new cases, Governor Gavin Newsom is tightening restrictions again.

 

“We are in a new chapter of our response, and unfortunately, where we are today is different from where we were two, three or four weeks ago,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a press conference on July 6. “Cases are surging, hospitalizations are increasing, and mostly, this is all a reflection of a lot more community spread. All of us –– businesses, individuals and here at the Department of Public Health –– we have to be willing to take action quickly as our situation has evolved.”

 

About our localized COVID-19 case data: The case data comes from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, which began releasing areas-specific numbers on March 25. This data can also be found on Crosstown’s interactive map, which is updated daily. For the City of Los Angeles, Crosstown uses a library of neighborhood boundaries developed by the Los Angeles Times. In several cases, we modified the neighborhood definitions provided by the Department of Public Health to conform to these boundaries. In several cases, we aggregated smaller areas into larger ones to conform with our boundaries. The revised boundaries may result in totals that, in some cases, vary slightly from numbers published by the county. In addition, because of the method the county uses to release data, there are several neighborhoods within the City of Los Angeles for which we cannot confidently report numbers. There are also several areas in Los Angeles County, including Universal City, Castaic and Northwest Antelope Valley, which are not included in the table below because of our uncertainty about the geographic boundaries used by the county. 

 

Neighborhood New Cases in May New Cases in June
% change from May to June additions
Avalon 0 6 N/A
Rolling Hills 0 2 N/A
Tujunga Canyons 0 0 N/A
Unincorporated Catalina Island 0 1 N/A
West San Dimas 0 0 N/A
Westlake Village 0 2 N/A
Whittier Narrows 0 0 N/A
Rolling Hills Estates 1 10 900.00%
Hermosa Beach 7 47 571.43%
Agoura Hills 4 26 550.00%
Unincorporated Santa Susana Mountains 1 6 500.00%
La Verne 16 95 493.75%
Southeast Antelope Valley 3 16 433.33%
Irwindale 2 10 400.00%
Acton 3 14 366.67%
West Los Angeles 26 116 346.15%
Manhattan Beach 14 57 307.14%
Beverlywood 6 23 283.33%
Beverly Crest 5 19 280.00%
Century City 5 19 280.00%
Leona Valley 2 7 250.00%
Northwest Palmdale 4 14 250.00%
Beverly Hills 31 104 235.48%
Vernon 3 10 233.33%
East Compton 40 132 230.00%
La Puente 97 319 228.87%
North Whittier 19 60 215.79%
South Whittier 107 324 202.80%
Diamond Bar 36 109 202.78%
East La Mirada 14 42 200.00%
San Pasqual 1 3 200.00%
Westwood 22 65 195.45%
Covina 88 257 192.05%
Hancock Park 17 48 182.35%
South San Jose Hills 48 135 181.25%
Pomona 362 1010 179.01%
South El Monte 68 189 177.94%
El Sereno 95 262 175.79%
San Dimas 34 92 170.59%
Jefferson Park 21 56 166.67%
Shadow Hills 3 8 166.67%
Sierra Madre 7 18 157.14%
West Puente Valley 94 237 152.13%
South Gate 433 1069 146.88%
West Covina 250 617 146.80%
Artesia 27 65 140.74%
Ladera Heights 5 12 140.00%
Sun Village 14 33 135.71%
El Segundo 9 21 133.33%
View Park Windsor Hills 12 28 133.33%
El Monte 420 975 132.14%
Azusa 118 272 130.51%
Valinda 67 154 129.85%
Highland Park 116 262 125.86%
Lake View Terrace 59 133 125.42%
Cheviot Hills 4 9 125.00%
Woodland Hills 61 137 124.59%
Norwalk 312 687 120.19%
Avocado Heights 27 59 118.52%
Unincorporated Santa Monica Mountains 11 24 118.18%
Claremont 28 61 117.86%
Westchester 33 71 115.15%
Paramount 233 500 114.59%
Lakewood 119 255 114.29%
Signal Hill 30 64 113.33%
Brentwood 18 38 111.11%
Hollywood 92 192 108.70%
Redondo Beach 36 74 105.56%
Carthay 30 61 103.33%
Westmont 135 273 102.22%
Baldwin Park 278 562 102.16%
Santa Fe Springs 47 95 102.13%
Lennox 57 115 101.75%
Del Aire 19 38 100.00%
Palos Verdes Estates 5 10 100.00%
Ramona 40 79 97.50%
Mayflower Village 26 51 96.15%
East Los Angeles 727 1425 96.01%
Hacienda Heights 106 206 94.34%
Manchester Square 13 25 92.31%
Harbor Gateway 82 157 91.46%
West Adams 180 344 91.11%
Compton 444 840 89.19%
Walnut 27 51 88.89%
Commerce 66 124 87.88%
La Cañada Flintridge 15 28 86.67%
Lake Los Angeles 15 28 86.67%
Whittier 218 401 83.94%
Glendora 104 191 83.65%
Valley Glen 48 87 81.25%
Vermont Vista 275 497 80.73%
Monterey Park 92 166 80.43%
Playa Vista 10 18 80.00%
Montebello 287 513 78.75%
Lomita 18 32 77.78%
Gardena 131 231 76.34%
Malibu 8 14 75.00%
Huntington Park 383 659 72.06%
Bel Air 7 12 71.43%
Florence-Firestone 442 750 69.68%
Willowbrook 220 373 69.55%
Encino 49 83 69.39%
Del Rey 32 54 68.75%
Tarzana 102 171 67.65%
Bradbury 3 5 66.67%
Citrus 51 85 66.67%
Leimert Park 30 50 66.67%
Hawaiian Gardens 65 108 66.15%
Bell Gardens 229 380 65.94%
Alhambra 141 231 63.83%
Lancaster 306 501 63.73%
Mid-Wilshire 55 90 63.64%
Stevenson Ranch 19 31 63.16%
Watts 238 388 63.03%
Florence 309 503 62.78%
West Hollywood 51 83 62.75%
Adams-Normandie 29 47 62.07%
Long Beach 1323 2130 61.00%
Downey 542 871 60.70%
Walnut Park 93 149 60.22%
Charter Oak 32 51 59.38%
Exposition Park 142 225 58.45%
Arcadia 52 82 57.69%
Vermont Square 347 545 57.06%
South San Gabriel 30 47 56.67%
Bellflower 290 454 56.55%
La Crescenta Montrose 16 25 56.25%
Vermont Knolls 114 178 56.14%
Rosemead 88 137 55.68%
Historic South-Central 338 526 55.62%
Wilmington 199 308 54.77%
Palms 63 97 53.97%
Torrance 128 196 53.13%
Boyle Heights 618 941 52.27%
Hollywood Hills 26 39 50.00%
Los Feliz 40 60 50.00%
Playa Del Rey 2 3 50.00%
Rancho Dominguez 8 12 50.00%
Toluca Lake 10 15 50.00%
West Carson 42 63 50.00%
Eagle Rock 93 139 49.46%
South Park 304 453 49.01%
Mar Vista 31 46 48.39%
Lynwood 466 689 47.85%
Bell 218 322 47.71%
Hawthorne 226 333 47.35%
Palmdale 360 528 46.67%
Atwater Village 22 32 45.45%
Rowland Heights 89 129 44.94%
Glassell Park 81 117 44.44%
Harbor City 66 95 43.94%
Elysian Valley 39 56 43.59%
Silver Lake 76 109 43.42%
Central Alameda 470 673 43.19%
Elysian Park 7 10 42.86%
Rancho Park 7 10 42.86%
Fairfax 233 330 41.63%
West Whittier Los Nietos 137 193 40.88%
Sherman Oaks 113 158 39.82%
Porter Ranch 38 53 39.47%
North Hollywood 385 526 36.62%
Koreatown 375 511 36.27%
Mount Washington 59 80 35.59%
Inglewood 308 417 35.39%
Mission Hills 89 120 34.83%
Arlington Heights 22 29 31.82%
Cerritos 77 101 31.17%
Maywood 243 317 30.45%
Harvard Park 208 266 27.88%
Pico Robertson 26 33 26.92%
Hyde Park 97 123 26.80%
Green Meadows 356 446 25.28%
Carson 190 238 25.26%
Littlerock 8 10 25.00%
Marina Del Rey 4 5 25.00%
Rancho Palos Verdes 36 44 22.22%
Echo Park 223 272 21.97%
Venice 26 31 19.23%
Monrovia 115 137 19.13%
Canoga Park 242 287 18.60%
Mid-City 196 232 18.37%
Pico Rivera 364 428 17.58%
Harvard Heights 81 95 17.28%
Glendale 402 465 15.67%
Winnetka 155 178 14.84%
Northridge 194 221 13.92%
Duarte 62 70 12.90%
Westlake 606 684 12.87%
Lake Balboa 124 138 11.29%
University Park 132 146 10.61%
Burbank 164 181 10.37%
Alondra Park 30 33 10.00%
Arleta 185 202 9.19%
San Fernando 99 108 9.09%
Tujunga 56 61 8.93%
Sun Valley 197 214 8.63%
La Mirada 128 139 8.59%
Santa Monica 120 130 8.33%
Northeast Antelope Valley 18 19 5.56%
Santa Clarita 407 422 3.69%
Cudahy 191 198 3.66%
Sunland 63 64 1.59%
Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw 109 109 0.00%
Calabasas 46 46 0.00%
Pacific Palisades 21 21 0.00%
Van Nuys 464 459 -1.08%
Pico-Union 357 353 -1.12%
Lawndale 72 71 -1.39%
Lincoln Heights 216 207 -4.17%
Altadena 88 83 -5.68%
Chinatown 16 15 -6.25%
San Gabriel 111 104 -6.31%
Downtown 704 652 -7.39%
Pacoima 546 500 -8.42%
East San Gabriel 46 42 -8.70%
Granada Hills 226 196 -13.27%
Sylmar 527 457 -13.28%
La Habra Heights 7 6 -14.29%
Quartz Hill 19 16 -15.79%
North Hills 334 279 -16.47%
West Compton 24 20 -16.67%
West Hills 97 80 -17.53%
Panorama City 520 425 -18.27%
Valley Village 105 84 -20.00%
Chatsworth 109 86 -21.10%
San Pedro 402 312 -22.39%
Reseda 439 330 -24.83%
Pasadena 528 394 -25.38%
East Hollywood 214 158 -26.17%
Studio City 42 30 -28.57%
Temple City 115 81 -29.57%
South Pasadena 47 33 -29.79%
Gramercy Park 44 30 -31.82%
Desert View Highlands 3 2 -33.33%
Castaic Canyons 21 13 -38.10%
San Marino 12 7 -41.67%
Culver City 95 53 -44.21%
Agua Dulce 8 4 -50.00%
Angeles Crest 2 1 -50.00%
Elizabeth Lake 2 1 -50.00%
Hidden Hills 3 1 -66.67%
East Pasadena 4 1 -75.00%
Veterans Administration 5 1 -80.00%
Lopezkagel Canyons 7 1 -85.71%
Industry 11 1 -90.91%
Lake Hughes 1 0 -100.00%
Val Verde -12 2 -116.67%

 

How we did it: We used publicly available data from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health as the source for our COVID-19 case counts. We aggregated case counts from contiguous or nearby neighborhoods in order to be able to make comparisons of areas with similar populations. Click here to see our coronavirus map, which charts the progress of the virus by neighborhood.

 The LACDPH does periodically update past reports with new information, which sometimes causes case counts to fluctuate. Those revised reports do not always automatically become part of the public database. We try to update our reporting when new data becomes available.

Want to know more? Or simply just interested in our data? Email us at askus@xtown.la.